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82% of Americans Back Regulating Prediction Markets as Gambling
A recent poll by the American Gaming Association (AGA) found that 82% of U.S. adults believe prediction markets should be regulated as gambling products rather than financial instruments. The survey, conducted on 2,268 adults, reported a margin of error of ±2 points.
Public Opinion on the Nature of Prediction Markets
Three-quarters of respondents said that trading sports events on a prediction market is fundamentally the same as placing a sportsbook bet. The poll also showed that 84% of Democrats, 82% of Republicans, and 90% of independents agreed with the gambling-regulation stance.
AGA’s Argument and Economic Impact
The AGA argues that trading sports event contracts on prediction platforms constitutes illegal sports betting. The organization claims these platforms operate outside state and tribal regulatory frameworks, bypass consumer protections, and avoid licensing and taxes. Since late 2025, the AGA estimates states have lost more than $1.66 billion in tax revenue due to back-door sports betting on prediction markets.
Platform Counter-Claims and Market Structure
Platforms contend that their peer-to-peer trading model differs from traditional betting. Critics point to institutional traders such as Susquehanna International Group, which generated $22.1 billion in 2025, as evidence that the markets are not purely consumer-driven.
Implications for Regulation and Stakeholders
The poll reflects a growing public consensus that prediction markets should be treated like gambling. Earlier March polls found 61% of adults viewed purchasing event contracts as closer to gambling than investing. States facing potential revenue losses may push for stricter licensing requirements or outright bans. Operators will need to clarify their compliance status and consider the impact of new regulations on their business models.
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