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Prediction Platforms Double Down on Lobbying as States Threaten Regulation

Prediction Platforms Double Down on Lobbying as States Threaten Regulation

# prediction markets # lobbying # regulation
By Gambling Paradise editorial desk
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Lobbying Spend Surges

Kalshi spent $1.8 million on lobbying in the first half of 2026, nearly three times the $615,000 it reported for all of 2025, according to a report by advocacy group Demand Progress. The surge coincides with the appointment of former government officials to roles connected with the industry. Kalshi hired former Obama-era Stephanie Cutter, former Biden-era John Bivona, former Republican floor staffer Tony Hanagan and former Democratic congressman Jed Bhuta. Polymarket added David Urban, a former adviser to Donald Trump’s presidential campaign, to its ranks.

Demand Progress also highlighted the Coalition for Prediction Markets, an industry lobbying front that names former Democratic Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney as president and former Republican Rep. Patrick McHenry, who led the House Financial Services Committee, as senior adviser. Donald Trump Jr. is reportedly involved with both Kalshi and Polymarket.

Court Rulings Split the Landscape

The push for regulation comes after recent court decisions that have emboldened states. In September, the Sixth U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals ruled that Ohio and Tennessee could treat sports-event contracts as a type of gambling. The Ninth Circuit reached a similar conclusion in Nevada. These rulings conflict with a decision that prevented New Jersey from regulating prediction markets, leaving the regulatory landscape unsettled. Several states have asked the U.S. Supreme Court to intervene for a definitive ruling.

If state laws apply to prediction markets, operators could be forced to seek licenses, follow local consumer-protection rules, and in some cases cease operations in certain jurisdictions. The industry’s lobbying efforts aim to prevent such outcomes.

The uncertainty around regulation means players face potential changes in access, fees, and withdrawal terms. Operators may need to adjust KYC procedures, impose new limits, or alter payout structures to comply with state requirements.

The debate continues as lobbying efforts intensify and courts issue conflicting rulings, leaving the future of prediction markets in the United States unresolved.

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About this article

Material claims are checked against the source and supporting references below. Editorial analysis is separated from reported fact. Read our editorial standards and corrections process.

Primary topic
prediction markets
Last reviewed
Nov 13, 2026
Original source
www.gamblingnews.com
Coverage angle
iGaming and betting operators

Key Takeaways

  • Kalshi spent $1.8m on lobbying in H1 2026, up from $615k in 2025.
  • Both Kalshi and Polymarket have hired former government officials from both parties.
  • Court rulings in Ohio, Tennessee and Nevada treat sports-event contracts as gambling, while New Jersey has ruled otherwise.
  • State regulation could force operators to license, comply with consumer-protection rules or shut down in some jurisdictions.

FAQ

What is the main risk for players if prediction markets are regulated as gambling?

Operators would need to obtain state licenses and comply with consumer-protection rules, potentially limiting access or increasing costs for players.

Which former officials have Kalshi hired?

Kalshi hired former Obama-era Stephanie Cutter, former Biden-era John Bivona, former Republican floor staffer Tony Hanagan and former Democratic congressman Jed Bhuta.

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